An Exploratory Study of Ranking Variability (State-Level Data)

Our SEO team at Go Fish Digital analyzed search result pages for 500 non-branded keywords in 50 U.S. states to better understand how search results vary based on the user’s search location. The study includes an analysis of 25,000 search result pages.

We initiated this study after observing increased ranking volatility for non-branded keywords since Google’s March 2024 Core Update. As shown in the screenshot below of the keyword “truck accident lawyer” from Ahrefs, there was a noticeable shift in search results that returned regional landing pages. The study addressed the outcome of the post-March 2024 Core update for location-based search result pages.

Keyword with Strong Volatility July 2024 vs Jan 2024 

“Truck accident lawyer” (28,000 MSV)

Source: Ahrefs

Key Findings: 

  1. The number of domains that rank on page 1 of Google search results for a short tail industry keyword can be as many as 354 in all 50 states, with the most appearing for legal industry keywords.  
  2. The ranking positions of large national brands, such as Liberty Mutual, and Yelp,  vary significantly across states.
  3. Certain industries (e.g. Restaurant, Legal) have increased competition as local results are given preference even for short tail keywords (e.g. lawyers for car accidents). 
  4. Rank tracking software that excludes tracking at multiple locations may not accurately reflect your site’s ranking position. 
  5. Industries like legal services and venues prioritize regionalized SEO best practices by including state names in meta tags in landing pages.

Our findings indicate that national brands (Liberty Mutual, Yelp, etc.) are ranking across the United States, with some non-service-oriented websites also appearing across the United States including Wikipedia and Reddit. Overall, certain industries have a vastly greater amount of competition geographically with restaurant and legal/lawyer keywords showing a higher likelihood of competitors.

Regional brands have a strong likelihood to rank for their given geographic region, especially if they have their region’s name in the metadata (title tag and meta description). We strongly recommend considering the industry you’re in to determine your SEO strategy and using service pages when applicable to rank across various regions. We hope our exploratory research opens a wider discussion on the nuances of search rankings and their visibility across regions. 

If you would like to download the CSV of the data, please click here:  → Total SERP Results

Problem Overview — Increased Volatility Based on Location

Localization refers to the likelihood that a search result will appear closer to its geographic origin. Recently, we’ve observed more ranking variability for non-branded keywords since Google’s March 2024 Core Update. Sites that historically received consistent organic traffic for short tail keywords had suddenly experienced increased volatility even though many rank tracking tools showed their ranking position remained stable.. 

While Google’s March 2024 Core update did not specifically address localization, we suspect the algorithm rewarded local results in an effort to be more helpful to searchers.  Our hypothesis for this study was search results for short tail keywords include an increased volume of local results on page one.

Study Approach

To explore the wider implications of the ranking variability after the March Core update, our team at Go Fish Digital analyzed the search results for 25,000 queries to determine the breadth of localization across a subset of industry keywords in the United States. 

The study’s goal was not to demonstrate causality, but to document trends we are seeing, both regionally and nationally in search result pages. We hope our exploratory research opens a wider discussion on the nuances of search ranking, the impact localization has on search results, and how SEOs can develop strategies around creating content that can rank for both the keywords and the users in the regions their businesses serve. 

Our end goal is to provide actionable tips and guidance for three specific entities that may be affected by greater localization and tougher competition: 

  • National brands
  • Regional brands 
  • SEO professionals

Research Questions 

Below we have three primary research questions driving our exploratory research: 

Research Question #1 

Which industries have the highest and lowest competition in localized search results?

Research Question #2

What trends are we seeing from state-level data about localized search results?

Research Question #3

What should national brands, regional brands, and SEOs take from these findings?

Data & Sampling 

Our dataset was collected by conducting a search for 50 keywords from 10 different industries in all 50 US states. This resulted in data for 25,000 search queries.  We utilized SERP AI to help pull search results for a specific state location for each keyword.  

To ensure there was consistency across our data, we only selected:

  • Non-branded keywords 
  • No mention of location in the keyword (truck accident lawyer vs truck accident lawyer in NYC).  
  • No “near me” queries which typically result in a more localized search. Lastly, we also only considered keywords with high MSV. 
  • Only 50 keywords for each industry. 

The table below highlights examples of keywords that were selected for each category. The total keyword count was 500.

If you would like to download the CSV of the data, please click here → Total SERP Results

Limitations

The study’s primary limitation is the absence of historical keyword data. Rather than establishing causation following the March 2024 Core Update, the study aims to document the current ranking of keywords and their distribution across US states. The data pulled from this study took place around July 7-10.  

Additionally, the study only examined keywords and their rankings within the United States. We recommend that other SEOs should also explore keywords ranking by region for countries outside of the United States. 

Lastly, industry selection is also a limitation. We primarily examined industries that could have an in-person component to purchase a good or service and we wanted a dataset that had some level of variety which we achieved.

Findings

The industry-level and the state-level variability sections break up our findings below. The industry findings provide more context about the types of keywords that appear across the United States to document the concentration of more competitive and diverse SERPs.

Industry Findings

Research Question #1

Which industries have the highest and lowest variability in localized search results?

Based on initial exploratory findings of the industries explored, the data suggests a noticeable difference in unique domains for keywords related to restaurants, lawyers (legal), and venues meaning that restaurant and legal industry websites have more variety in search results which could result in more volatility in search rankings. These industries also show the most difference in ranking distributions with sites like Yelp dominating in SERPs across the US. 

Industries with lower percentages of unique domains like software and insurance have fewer players in the space, and there is generally less competition in the space because it is more difficult for competitors to rank against larger national brands in certain industries like insurance for example (Liberty Mutual, Allstate etc.). 

Our general findings also indicate that certain industries have more unique domains appearing across the US including legal, mechanics, and restaurants. The SERP results of these keywords are generally more localized and return more results from the geographic regions. In the graph below, the legal industry has the maximum number of search results across 50 states with as many as 354 unique domains appearing in SERPs.

What is also apparent from the findings is that competitiveness in search results is not simply tied to the number of search results, but the range of unique domains that can appear for a certain query. As shown in the box charts and tables below, while a page could more likely appear in search results in competitive industries like restaurants, it is much more difficult to compete with larger, national brands in spaces like software and insurance because there is a shorter distance between unique domains for a given keyword.

The tables below show the differences in how search results vary based on state-level data. Top competitors for the Restaurant industry include sites like Tripadvisor and Yelp with social media platforms also appearing in search results. For example, a local Facebook page from Indianapolis, Indiana ranked #9 for fondue restaurants

The differences between the most and least variability also show a stronger trend of industry leaders appearing in more search results across the US. For example, the insurance industry is heavily concentrated with major players meaning that it is harder for smaller and regional brands to appear in search results for Insurance keywords.

More Variability in Search Results = Less Overall Competition

Less Variability in Search Results = More Overall Competition 

 

 

The difference in variability across industries highlights the competitive landscape within each sector. For example, the restaurant industry has a diverse range of competitors appearing in search results, reflecting a fragmented market where few entities outside Tripadvisor and Yelp have control. Whereas, this contrasts with industries like software and insurance, where a few major companies dominate the SERPs, reflecting a more consolidated market.

The Importance of Meta Tags

We also examined meta tags to determine the extent to which different industries are targeting different locations, namely states. Industries like legal services and venues prioritize regionalized SEO best practices by including state names in meta tags in landing pages.  

For example, the #1 ranking page for “car accident lawyers” has the title tag “Michigan Car Accident Lawyer Near You: Best Auto Injury” and the #1 ranking page for “car accident lawyers” in Minnesota has the title tag “Minnesota Car Accident Lawyers.”

One of the websites that has a regional SEO strategy is a mobile mechanic service company called Wrench. In the example below, they targeted Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Example of Targeting a State Using Meta Tags To Target Albuquerque NM https://wrench.com/cities/albuquerque-nm-mobile-mechanic/

Screenshot from Detailed Chrome Extension

Conversely, industries with lower percentages (E.G., software, health, and beauty) likely have a broader target audience or less reliance on geographic targeting in their SEO strategies. In the table below it shows that there are fewer location-based results than more nationally recognized brands like Sephora, Target, and Walmart. 

State-Level Ranking Variability Findings

Research Question #2

What trends are we seeing from state-level data about localized search results?

Ranking variability refers to the significant differences we see in rankings of keywords for different states. Our general finding is that dominant national brands appear more often in searches across the United States. However, regional brands have a likely chance of outranking larger national brands depending on their geographic location. We additionally discovered that websites that don’t offer a service related to the industry rank can still rank well in search results, namely Wikipedia and Reddit. 

For example, the top results for the keywords below have a similar trend of having larger national brands ranking in 1-3 positions across different industries. The tables below are representative of our sample. 

 

 

 

Reddit has also been a trending topic for SEOs for their continued dominance in SERP and their partnership with Google. Our data also suggests that Reddit has a strong national presence and ranks across the United States, with a strong presence for beauty keywords (“tinted moisturizer”) and local services (“pressure washing”) that are transactional. They generally appear in the discussions and forums section which occurs around the middle of page 1.

Page 1 Result for “Pressure Washing” in Google Search

Page 1 Result for Tinted Moisturizer in Google Search

Research Question #3

What should national brands, regional brands, and SEOs take from these findings?

National Brands 

Companies with a large online national presence still should consider being proactive in their SEO strategies to avoid losing traffic to regional competition. State-level modifiers in the title tag suggest that some keywords will favor a local page from National Brands. If they don’t have those they’re vulnerable to competition from both the National Brands that do and the Regional Brands competing for local results. Wrench has a strong approach where they create their landing pages for cities across the US, which even has outranked Yelp in search results. 

 

Wrench Using a State-Landing Page Approach to Capture Search Traffic For Various Cities

Regional Brands 

Even though national brands may rank for more keywords, they don’t always rank for keywords where a regional brand may reside. Regional brands with limited resources should focus their efforts on optimizing their local pages to the best of their ability. In this example for the keyword “lawyers for car accidents,” Forbes ranks for several US states. Forbes typically holds a strong position across various industries, even beyond the scope of this study. However, they did not secure a top spot in Alabama. In contrast, a well-ranked website in that state was a law firm named Alabama Injury Lawyer. 

Keyword: “Lawyers for Car Accidents” 

Domain: Forbes 

Go Fish Digital Dataset + Internal Visualization Tool Used for the Screenshot

Keyword: “Lawyers for Car Accidents” 

Domain: Alabama Injury Lawyer

Go Fish Digital Dataset + Internal Visualization Tool Used for the Screenshot

SEOs

SEOs developing a strategy for organic search should consider the industry they are in when they are developing products and landing pages. Having a state landing page is not a one-size-fits-all approach and SEOs should strongly consider their audience and the goals of the business. Ensure that pages are optimized for their region with metadata if they are targeted to a certain region. 

Further Research Needed

As stated before, this study is primarily exploratory. We hope other SEOs also consider the role of localization in search rankings at the state level in their exploration of our dataset or if they want to collect their own data. 

While local SEO strategy is generally about reaching cities and districts, state-level data shows that regional brands can have a greater advantage even against some of the biggest names in the search industry. 

We hope our exploratory research opens a wider discussion on the nuances of search rankings and their visibility across regions. 

References 

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